| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Bryant | 19-3 | 1274.4 | +20.3 | 1294.7 | 70.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Tulsa | 21-14 | 1294.7 | +42.0 | 1336.7 | 35.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 14-49 | 1336.7 | -84.4 | 1252.3 | 35.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | New Mexico | 20-38 | 1258.6 | +6.4 | 1265.0 | 14.8% |
| 7 | Oct 2 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 37-10 | 1265.0 | +58.0 | 1323.0 | 45.3% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | L | Liberty | 27-30 | 1311.9 | +9.2 | 1321.1 | 31.1% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | L | Missouri State | 17-24 | 1321.1 | -14.6 | 1306.5 | 44.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 16-35 | 1306.5 | -17.0 | 1289.5 | 33.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 21-24 | 1289.5 | +9.3 | 1298.8 | 27.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Tennessee | 9-42 | 1298.8 | +3.8 | 1302.6 | 2.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UTEP | 34-31 | 1302.6 | +17.1 | 1319.7 | 47.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Middle Tennessee | 24-31 | 1319.7 | -31.4 | 1288.3 | 58.2% |