| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | Florida State | 17-34 | 1403.2 | -18.4 | 1384.7 | 7.3% |
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Mercyhurst | 51-14 | 1403.2 | -18.4 | 1384.7 | 98.1% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | L | Hawai'i | 19-29 | 1384.7 | -2.6 | 1382.1 | 34.3% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | New Mexico | 18-42 | 1385.3 | -3.8 | 1381.6 | 10.0% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | W | Western Kentucky | 34-13 | 1381.6 | +48.7 | 1430.2 | 39.2% |
| 6 | Oct 7 2026 | L | Florida International | 3-22 | 1430.2 | -27.0 | 1403.2 | 44.3% |